“Our country’s full."
That’s President Trump’s latest message for people migrating to the United States.
Claiming that the country is at capacity and lacking space for new residents is part of Trump’s efforts to double down on immigration as he makes border security a key campaign issue for a 2020 re-election.
But data cannot completely back that statement.
U.S. population growth has dropped to an 80-year low. While New Jersey’s overall population has increased, it’s primarily been fueled by an influx of immigrants. An NJ Advance Media analysis found that, from 2003 and 2017, the native-born population in New Jersey declined in nearly half of the 19 counties where the Census Bureau recorded data.
“President Trump’s statement is factually incorrect. America is not full yet. It’s rhetorically useful for his base but it is incredibly destructive for the country,” said Janice Fine, professor at the School of Management and Labor Relations, Rutgers University.
The native-born population drain is most noticeable in the 25-to-54 year age group — the prime working-age adults. And it’s not unique to New Jersey. A recent study showed that 80% of American counties saw a decline in the number of working-age adults from 2007 to 2017.
“Not only does this mean a lack of workers who are coming out of school with the most recent training to apply to their jobs, but also a lack of workers who are needed to pay social security taxes that can then be distributed to retirees,” said Richard Alba, a professor at the City University of New York Graduate Center.
Additionally, the birth rate in New Jersey is on the decline, dropping from 13.4 in 2007 to 11.2 in 2017.
One of the potential reasons fueling this decline is the trend of delaying births, as young millennials grapple with the effects of the Great Recession.
“The high cost of raising children in the United States and the difficulty that women face in particular when they’re working while having young children all contribute to it,” said Alba.
Nationally, the general fertility rate dropped 60.3 births per 1000 women aged between 15 and 44 — the lowest rate since the Centers for Disease Control started keeping records in 1909.
The total fertility rate, a different measure that estimates the average number of children a woman could expect to have over lifetime, is also down: at 1.76 births per woman. That’s below “replacement rate” — 2.1 births per woman — or the rate at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to another, without migration. For New Jersey, the fertility rate is 1.74, well below replacement rate, and down from 1.93 in 1990.
Fine says immigration is one solution to maintaining population growth, but added it could be one of many.
“There’s no question that the economy is heavily reliant on foreign-born workers. In all the key industries that are projected to grow, the foreign-born population is going to account for the lion’s share of who works in these occupations,” she said.
See how the native-born, working age population has changed in your county in the graphic below.
Workforce change in counties
Note about the data: The Census Bureau recorded data in 19 counties. Data source: American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2009 and 2017),U.S. Census Bureau.
Disha Raychaudhuri may be reached at disha@njadvancemedia.com. Follow her on Twitter @Disha_RC.